Friday, December 11, 2015

Highlights of the Chicago Federal Reserve 2015 Forecasting Conference

Highlights 
Chicago Federal Reserve 2015 Forecasting Conference

December 4, 2015

The Conference Participants met at the Chicago Federal Reserve to present, hear and discuss the US and Global Economic outlook for 2016.

The Conference Participants met at the Chicago Federal Reserve to present, hear and discuss the US and Global Economic outlook for 2016.

Forecast – The economic forecast presented by the Leir Bubble Center Director at the Conference sponsored by the Chicago Federal Reserve reflected the views developed during the Leir Bubble Conference in September plus subsequent economic and political events. He has thus projected relatively slow growth in 2016 similar to 2015 including very low growth in the first quarter with a pick-up in the second quarter and a dip in the 3d quarter before ending the year with relatively moderate growth. Overall he has projected 2015-2016 US real GDP growth at 2.5% with the unemployment rate falling to 4.6%. A detailed Excel spreadsheet has been posted along with this summary.


Sunday, September 20, 2015

Highlights of the Leir Bubble Center 2015 Bubble Conference

Highlights Leir Bubble Center 2015 Bubble Conference

Bubbles & Politics: China, 1857, 1929

September 18 -19, 2015


The Conference Participants met at the Leir Retreat in Ridgefield, CT that was formerly the estate of Henry J. Leir to discuss over two days various research presentations related to some issues and concerns that have arisen from an apparent increase since the 1970s of financial bubbles and their impact not only on the global financial system but also politics. The topics covered ranged from the consequences of a dramatically slowing Chinese economy to the historical political and social consequences of major financial crises.